How fast will I swim Ironman?

Ironman is 3.8 km. It is very true that "you can't win Ironman in the swim." It is also very true that "Dave can't win Ironman, period." But... if I have a time goal then swimming will play a big role.

For instance, in 2008 I swam 1500 m in 38 minutes. In 2009 it took me 42 minutes. At that speed, swimming 3.8 km will probably take me 1:45:00-ish. If I want to have any shot at 12 hours then this will be too slow. In truth I think I will be 13 hours. But 20 or 30 extra minutes in the water will make a huge impact on my goals.

This is why I found Coach Paul. I need two things: commitment and improvement. Coaching helps my accountability, big time.

I am getting better. I am still 5 months away from Ironman but I feel like 1:20:00-ish for the swim is feasible. This would leave 10:40:00 for bike, run, and transition. This allows me to dream of a 12 hour finish.

Here is where I am at now...